Are we imminently facing The Singularity? This is the hypothesised moment of technological transcendence, in the concept introduced by mathematician and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, when accelerating technological change leads to a recursively self-improving artificial intelligence of superhuman capabilities, with literally unknowable and ineffable consequences. The most vocal proponent of this eschatology is Ray Kurzweil, whose promotion of the idea takes to the big screen this year with the forthcoming release of the film The Singularity is Near.
Kurzweil describes the run-up to The Singularity: “Within a quarter century, nonbiological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence. It will then soar past it … Intelligent nanorobots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our brains, and our environment, overcoming pollution and poverty, providing vastly extended longevity … and vastly enhanced human intelligence. The result will be an intimate merger between the technology-creating species and the technological evolutionary process it spawned.” Where will we go from here? To The Singularity – “We’ll get to a point where technical progress will be so fast that unenhanced human intelligence will be unable to follow it”. This will take place, according to Kurzweil, in the year 2045.
The film is to be a fast-paced documentary, but to leaven the interviews with singularitarian thinkers like Aubrey de Gray, Eric Drexler and Eliezer Yudkowsky, there’ll be a story-line to place the technology in social context. This follows the touching struggle of Kurzweil’s female, electronic alter ego, Ramona, to achieve full person-hood, foiling an attack of self-replicating nanobots on the way, before finally being coached to pass a Turing test by self-help guru Tony Robbins.
For those who might prefer a less dramatic discussion of The Singularity, IEEE Spectrum, is running a special report on the subject in its June edition. According to a press release (via Nanowerk), “the editors invited articles from half a dozen people who have worked on and written about subjects central to the singularity idea in all its loopy glory. They encompass not just hardware and wetware but also economics, consciousness, robotics, nanotechnology, and philosophy.” One of those writers is me; my article, on nanotechnology, ended up with the title “Rupturing the Nanotech Rapture”.
We’ll need to wait a week or two to read the articles – I’m particularly looking forward to reading Christof Koch’s article on machine consciousness, and Alfred Nordmann’s argument against “technological fabulism” and the “baseless extrapolations” it rests on. Of course, even before reading the articles, transhumanist writer Michael Anissimov fears the worst.